Mark Carney Wins Minority Government

Key Takeaways

• Mark Carney leads the Liberal Party of Canada to a fourth consecutive term as the governing party with a strong minority government. With a number of close ridings still being tabulated, the possibility of a narrow majority government exists.
• Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada increased their vote share over the two previous elections, but it was not enough to overcome Liberal support and the collapse of the NDP vote. Poilievre failed to win the riding of Carleton and will lead the Conservatives from outside of the House of Commons for the time being.
• Jagmeet Singh also lost his seat and announced he is stepping down as NDP Leader once an interim leader is selected.
• Prime Minister Carney will be standing up his government, including selecting a new Cabinet and engaging with the Trump Administration, in the coming weeks.

Overview of the results

‍Prime Minister Mark Carney has led the Liberal Party of Canada to a fourth consecutive term as the governing party. This election victory resulted in a minority government, with 43.5 percent of the vote share, and 168 seats in the House of Commons. While this is an 8-seat increase from the 2021 election, as of the time of this writing Carney was not able to achieve the 172 seats required to form a majority government.  

There are many close races that major news outlets have not yet called as decided. It is possible that the Liberals pick up the remaining seats required for a majority, though that possibility appears to be dwindling as the last of the votes are tallied.  

What is clearer is that the Conservative Party of Canada will continue to serve as the Official Opposition in the House of Commons after receiving 41.4 percent of the vote share, gaining 25 seats from the 2021 election to a total of 144 seats.  

This election saw a steep decrease in support for third parties, as a record proportion of the vote share went to the Liberal and Conservative Parties. However, these third parties will continue to hold their influence when the House of Commons returns, with the Bloc Québécois and the NDP holding a balance of power.  

The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, once again secured the third-highest number of seats. However, with a 9-seat decrease from 2021, the party is now returning to the House of Commons with a diminished 23 seats.  

The New Democratic Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, saw the worst result in party history in this election, resulting in only seven seats. The NDP has lost Official Party status, which requires 12 seats in the House of Commons.  

The Green Party of Canada secured just one seat, with Co-Leader Elizabeth May winning her riding and allowing the party to maintain a presence in parliament. Green Party co-lead, Jonathan Pedneault, failed to win his riding of Outremont in Quebec.

How we got here

The 2025 federal election was called amidst significant changes to Canada’s federal political landscape. Former Prime Minister Trudeau announced on January 6, 2025, that he would step down as Liberal Leader as soon as a successor was chosen. Mark Carney was selected as the new Liberal Leader on March 9th and quickly triggered the federal election on March 23rd.

President Trump, inaugurated for his second term in office on January 20th, then injected himself into the campaign by raising tensions between Canada and the United States via tariff threats and regular calls for Canada to join the United States as the 51st state. Tariffs animated the campaign throughout, including the imposition of tariffs on Canadian autos, auto parts, aluminum, and steel. President Trump’s “Liberation Day” landed in the middle of the campaign - April 2nd - keeping Canadians focussed on the Canada-U.S. dynamic as the top federal priority.

Previous top-line concerns regarding affordability and housing continued to be seen as important by Canadians but did not ultimately drive votes as much as the switch in Liberal Leader from Trudeau to Carney or President Trump’s combative policies.

Carney, who focused his campaign on protecting Canadian sovereignty and the economy, quickly became the favoured candidate to address these concerns. The Liberals became the frontrunner in national polls within the first week of the campaign, erasing a 20- to 25-point polling lead that the Conservative Party had enjoyed over the preceding months.

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