Mark Carney Calls a Federal Election

Tight race expected between Liberals and Conservatives

Today at Rideau Hall, Prime Minister Mark Carney officially asked the Governor General to dissolve Parliament and initiate a federal election to be held on April 28, 2025. While the federal government was slated to have an election as late as October 21, 2025, this move comes as no surprise considering the recent political landscape and developments that led to Mark Carney becoming Prime Minister earlier this month.

Analysis

Many in Ottawa and across the federal political landscape had long speculated on an early election call, certainly since the end of the Liberal-NDP Supply and Confidence Agreement in September 2024, and amidst dissatisfaction both within the Liberal party and by the public as the Conservatives grew in favour throughout the Fall of 2024.

Much has changed since this early election speculation began, with Justin Trudeau resigning as Prime Minister on January 6th as well as having the Governor General prorogue Parliament until March 24th. Mark Carney was then elected by Liberal party members to replace Trudeau on March 9th. Carney has never been elected to political office before, and the election will see how his lengthy CV will match up to the seasoned and honed political skills of Pierre Poilievre.

This election comes at time of heightened tensions between the United States and Canada, as President Donald J. Trump has implemented tariffs against Canadian steel and aluminum producers and threatens to implement more on April 2nd. As such, this election will largely be focused on who is best positioned to deal with President Trump and have a plan to preserve Canadian interests, domestically and abroad.

Canadians stand united for their country with a renewed sense of patriotism. Their focus is on the economy, security, and sovereignty. As such, it is all the more important to ensure that Canadians determine which political party is the best placed to swiftly respond once the election is completed.

What to expect

Liberal Party of Canada

While the Liberal Party of Canada seeks to win a fourth straight federal election, their campaign, platforms, and policies look very different from previous elections with Prime Minister Mark Carney now as Leader of the Party.

Prime Minister Carney has already come forward with some policy measures and proposals during the Liberal Leadership race. These include measures to address affordability concerns, including removing the Consumer Carbon Tax, announcing the elimination of the GST for first-time home buyers for new or renovated homes under $1 million, and cancelling the proposed capital gains tax, as well as taking action on supporting major projects by doubling the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program. He also has introduced further measures to support workers and businesses to address tariffs concerns, and strengthen relationships with other countries to reduce reliance on the United States. However, he will need to go further to differentiate himself from Justin Trudeau and position himself to best deal with President Trump.

Prime Minister Carney will be aiming to avoid the fate of past prime ministers Charles Tupper (1896), John Turner (1984), and Kim Campbell (1993), who were sworn in to extend their party’s time in power but lost within months— or, in Tupper’s case, weeks.

Conservative Party of Canada

Prior to the announced resignation of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister, the Conservative Party of Canada had been enjoying a significant lead ahead of the other parties for the better part of two years. That lead has closed over the past few months and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre will be hoping to make up lost ground.

The Conservatives are in full campaign mode with their election slogan “Canada First, For a Change” and daily policy announcements: a promise to repeal the federal industrial carbon price and replace it with incentives; a plan to fast-track approvals for the Ring of Fire; shovel-ready zones where natural resource extraction is pre-approved and permitted; and a “more boots, less suits” plan to train 350,000 trades workers.

Poilievre has had some difficulties maintaining momentum in the past few months, as the election has shifted from a referendum against the Liberal government to how to best protect the Canadian economy against President Trump’s tariffs. As such, Poilievre has been working to demonstrate that he has Canadians’ interests at heart amid the growing Canada-U.S. tension. Polls show that Mr. Carney is significantly ahead of Mr. Poilievre when Canadians are asked which leader is best suited to confront and deal with the Trump tariffs. Despite this, the Conservatives retain a number of advantages heading into this election, having been the party best positioned for an early election with the most candidates nominated well ahead of the election call, and having been the party with the highest fundraising in the past year, raising over $40 million dollars in 2024 - double their opponents combined - and remaining extremely healthy through the first quarter of 2025.

New Democratic Party of Canada

Based on current polling trends, the New Democratic Party has a tough battle ahead of them during this election. Their favorability has dropped dramatically since January 2025 when they were polling ahead of the Liberals in a distant second to the Conservatives. As such, it will be important to position themselves as the alternative to the Liberal Party as “the real progressives” and attempt to highlight the successes accomplished under the Supply and Confidence agreement, such as Pharmacare, dental care and legislation banning replacement workers.

This will be a challenge, as the NDP fails to have a full slate of candidates nominated for the 2025 election, despite being hard at work to secure candidate recruitment, and presently faces large polling deficits in British Columbia and Manitoba where the party governs provincially. The NDP, however, has already begun receiving official endorsements from unions and unlike the Liberals and Conservatives where both of their leaders are facing the Canadian electorate for the first time, this serves as the third national campaign for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Bloc Québécois

Prior to the election being called, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet stated that his party was prepared and ready for the election. However, in an election focused on the national concerns of dealing with President Trump, the Bloc Québécois may have difficulties convincing voters to support them, as recent polling has been showing the Bloc’s numbers falling. Blanchet has a few built in advantages, only having to run candidates in 78 ridings vs 343 for other Federal parties, and being a seasoned campaigner himself. The Bloc was also seen to be previously losing ground to the Liberals in the 2021 election until the English language debate when a question from the moderator around the validity of Bill 21 gave Blanchet a chance to affirm the position reflecting the values of Quebec and breathe life into a flagging campaign.

Next Steps

With the election officially being called, we will be seeing the campaigns in full swing in the coming days. Following this, political parties will begin to release their official policy platforms to map out their plans and priorities for Canada, including dealing with both international concerns, such as tariffs, and national concerns, such as affordability and housing.