Federal Election 2025 Update/Week 3

Key Takeways:

• Domestic policies take centre stage following U.S. tariff threats in previous weeks.
• Liberals continue to lead in the polls, however, some pollsters say Conservative support could be growing.
• Leader debate taking place next week, with platforms expected beforehand.

Current Political Landscape

With the conclusion of week three, we are at the halfway mark of the 2025 federal election campaign and past the time when parties can replace candidates in particular ridings. The party leaders have continued to present their plans for Canada, in efforts to convince Canadians that they are best positioned to form government.

While last week's sole focus was President Trump’s tariffs and their impact on the Canadian economy, the campaigns’ focus this week was on domestic policies, including support for workers and seniors, and addressing crime and affordability concerns. The key announcements from both the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party involved plans to accelerate energy and natural resource projects in the country, a key issue where both parties are keen to move big projects through to the approval stage faster. Each leader presented different ways to attain that goal, but both committed themselves to a more streamlined process.

As we near ever closer to election day, we will see how the debates affect the numbers, how the campaigns adapt to these changes, and whether the US President will make another foray into this election.

More platforms are expected to be released, with the French and English debates on April 16th and 17th, respectively.

This Week's Polling

Polling has remained consistent, with the Liberals continuing to maintain a midsized gap on the CPC, with the most recent aggregate polling projections showing Liberals in the lead with 44 points, with the Conservatives close behind with 38 points. This results in a one-point increase for the LPC, while the CPC’s numbers are consistent with last week’s projections. Trailing behind both parties are the NDP and Bloc Quebecois, with eight points and six points, respectively.

These numbers currently break down to Liberals with 196 seats in the House of Commons, Conservatives holding 121 seats, the Bloc with 17, and the NDP with eight if an election were to be held today. This continues the upward trend of the previous week for the Liberal Party, with them being able to achieve the 172 seats needed to form a majority government, while the other parties continue with a gradual drop in seats projected.

While the polling numbers continue to indicate the Liberals could achieve a majority government, with polling projections from the past few weeks seeing consistent growth, some polls are reporting that the Conservatives are slowly making headway in closing this gap. The 2025 federal election campaign is far from over, and there is sure to be continued movement in the polls following next week’s debates, and the expected release of party platforms.

Political Parties

Liberal Party of Canada

This week, Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney travelled to Western Canada, making campaign stops in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan before returning once again to Ontario.

Carney spent his third week on the campaign trail making a variety of policy announcements, including, those to support retirees cope with the impact of tariffs on the stock market by lowering the minimum withdrawal amount from a Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF) by 25 percent and increasing Guaranteed Income Supplements (GIS) by five percent. As well as those for skilled trade workers, such as creating a new apprenticeship grant, increasing access to union-led initiatives, and creating a new capital funding stream for colleges. Carney also committed to increasing labour mobility across the country, making national parks and historical sites free in the summer, and increasing funding for the CBC.

Following these announcements, Carney turned to conservation efforts, committing to creating at least 10 new national parks and marine conservation areas and 15 new urban parks, as well as investing $100 million in a “strategic water security technology fund” to advance Canadian research and development, artificial intelligence, monitoring, and data tools.

The Liberals largest announcement came in the latter half of the week, where the Leader laid out his plan to make “Canada the world’s leading energy superpower.” As the framing suggests, the plan seeks to grow Canada’s exports of energy and critical minerals through commitments to reform federal regulation; new fiscal and tax-based incentives, as well as commitments to new infrastructure investments—namely an east-west electricity grid and national energy corridors. The measures include:

Those to support accelerating project approvals, such as:

• Establishing a list of Projects of National Interest with the provinces and territories for fast-tracking.
• Establishing a Major Federal Project Office to advance the One Project, One Review approach to have project decisions completed within two years.

Those to secure Canada’s energy future, such as:

• Commitment to maintain the existing Clean Economy Investment Tax Credit regime, and enact into law outstanding Tax Credits, namely the Clean Electricity ITC and the inclusion of waste biomass.
• Developing a trade and energy corridor with provinces, territories, and Indigenous partners for transport, energy, critical minerals, and digital connectivity.
• Working with provinces and territories to build an East-West electricity grid.
• Investing in Canada’s conventional and clean energy potential, including working with the oil and gas sector to reduce emissions.

Those to invest in critical mineral development, such as:

• Creating the First and Last Mile Fund (FLMF), to connect critical minerals and energy projects to supply chains.
• Expanding existing tax credits, aimed at attracting, expanding, and de-risking investment in critical mineral exploration and extraction.

Those to encourage Indigenous participation, such as:

• Doubling the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program to support more Indigenous-led energy, infrastructure, transportation, and trade projects across the country.
• Increasing capacity for Indigenous communities to engage in projects early and consistently by increasing funding to $40 million per year.

It is worth noting that the measures laid out have certain differences with those laid out by the Conservative Party of Canada but generally fall under the same policy direction of incentivizing investments in clean energy, conventional energy, and critical minerals via tax credits and streamlining regulation.  With this week’s announcement, both parties with chances to form government, Liberals and Conservatives have pledged to maintain the Clean Economy Investment Tax Credits regime.

Conservative Party of Canada

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre spent the latter half of his week in Ontario, however had campaign stops in Alberta and British Columbia towards the beginning of the week.

Poilievre began this week with an announcement related to accelerating major projects in the country, including those relating to energy and infrastructure. This announcement was solely focused on creating a one-stop shop for project approvals with a new office called the Rapid Resource Project Office. This Office would consist of one simple application and one environmental review, which is intended to avoid duplication by handling all regulatory approvals across all levels of government. Alongside this announcement, Poilievre released a list of ten priority projects that he claims have been stuck in the Impact Assessment Agency’s approval process. Poilievre also committed to creating the Canadian Indigenous Opportunities Corporation to offer loan guarantees for local Indigenous-led resource projects.

This week, Poilievre also focused on crime policy, introducing measures such as banning bail, parole, and house arrest for repeat serious offenders, creating a new criminal offence for assaulting an intimate partner, and passing a law to require the strictest possible bail conditions for anyone accused of intimate partner violence.

Poilievre also committed to measures to close offshore tax loopholes, including creating a task force to make tax rules fairer, simpler, and easier to administer, redirecting CRA resources to address offshore tax haven loopholes, creating a website to expose large corporations from taking advantage of loopholes to not pay their share of taxes, and expanding the Offshore Tax Informant Program to give whistleblowers up to 20% of recovered funds when they help expose illegal tax schemes.

He also made policy announcements to cut bureaucratic red tape by 25 percent in two years, as well as fund recovery treatment for 50,000 people facing addiction.

New Democratic Party

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spent this week in Western Canada, making announcements in various locations around British Columbia, and stopping in Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia. This week saw Singh’s messaging change, as he went from speaking about running for Prime Minister, to instead focus on the role of incumbent NDP MPs in Parliament for a balance of power.

Much of the early-week announcements from NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remained on Housing Affordability, including protections for renters, such as:

• Making the existing ban on foreign homebuying permanent with no sunset clause and barring purchase by numbered companies or corporate “proxies”
• A major additional investment in affordable, non-profit housing;
• Expanding the current CRA rules on house flipping from a 1-year rule to 5 years.
• Implement a national rent control;
• Ban fixed-term leases, renovictions, demovictions, and “other landlord practices aimed at pushing people out of their homes and driving up rents”;
• Ban rent price-fixing and collusion by corporate landlords, including the use of shared data platforms and coordinated pricing tools; and
• Recognize the right of tenant unions to negotiate with landlords.

In addition to this, Singh committed policies that reflect previous NDP priorities, such as pushing for full universal pharmacare within 4 years at an estimated cost of 3.5 billion a year and pushing for protection umbrellas for the employees of large bankrupting companies, which includes a commitment to:

• Expand CCAA “super-priority” protections for workers to include post-employment benefits,
• Raise the cap on the Wage Earner Protection Program (WEPP) to cover the wages people are owed.
• Strengthen and enforce directors’ liability for unpaid compensation
• Create a mechanism for workers to be made whole through trust-held funds or federal guarantees

Bloc Québécois

This week, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet spoke largely on French culture and language, advocating for the protection of Quebec’s distinct Francophone culture through:

• Stronger policies to support Quebec-made content, including funding for artists and requirements for digital platforms to contribute to local cultural production.
• Full control over its language laws, including allowing Quebec to have complete jurisdiction on language policy within the province.
• Stronger action on protecting the French language by applying Quebec Bill 101 to federally regulated businesses, requiring those businesses to adhere to French language standards.

Green Party

This week, the Green Party announced various policy commitments, including plans for larger policy matters such as healthcare and foreign affairs, as well as their response to U.S. tariffs.

The Green Party unveiled their plan to expand universal public healthcare, which includes introducing a Primary Care Health Act to help guarantee access to family doctors, nurse practitioners, or community health teams, implementing pharmacare and expanding dental care, and investing in healthcare professionals’ training as well as compensation. The Green Party’s healthcare policy also consists of their support for the United Nations Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities recommendation that Canada repeal the expansion of MAiD for Canadians whose natural death is not reasonably foreseeable.

The Green Party’s approach to foreign affairs emphasizes peace, human rights, multilateralism, and strengthening Canada’s sovereignty and global role. This includes building a new global democratic alliance, enhancing refugee protections and immigration infrastructure, strengthening Canada’s global role through aid, and rejecting NATO’s defence spending target in favour of revising Canada’s military doctrine. The Green Party’s foreign policy also encompasses their proposal to develop a Federal Strategic Reserve of softwood lumber to address possible future tariffs on Canadian lumber in efforts to stabilize prices.

This week, the Green Party also proposed that the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) be mandated to make investments in Canada and promote Canadian innovation with the aim of strengthening the Canadian economy in the face of ongoing tariff threats from the U.S.