Federal Election 2025 Update/Week 4

Key Takeaways

• Federal debate this week saw Party Leaders face off against each other to showcase their plan for the country to Canadians.
• Domestic policies continue to take centre stage following U.S. tariff threats in the early weeks of the election. 
• Liberals continue to lead in the polls. However, Conservative support could be growing as polls seem to tighten. 

Current Political Landscape

With the conclusion of week four of the 2025 federal election, we only have one full week left of the campaign. As such, party leaders have continued to present their plans for Canada in efforts to convince Canadians that they are best positioned to form a government, particularly in the French and English debates, held on April 16th and 17th, respectively.

In both debates, each leader kept consistent with the key messages and overall tone that they focused on throughout the campaign. Liberal Leader Mark Carney connected the questions directed at him back to threats to Canadian sovereignty, such as President Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre continued with his focus on demonstrating the need for change from the Liberal governments. As both the NDP and Bloc Québécois have continued to trail behind the Liberals and the Conservatives in the polls, both parties continued to advocate that Canadians need their presence in Ottawa, particularly in a minority parliament.

In addition to the debates, this week appeared to continue the pattern of last week, with each party focusing its announcements on domestic policies. The Conservatives made policy announcements related to affordability and public safety concerns. The Liberals also had announcements on public safety, but more broadly stuck with the larger “Canada Strong” focus.

As we approach the final full week of the campaign, we are expecting party platforms to be released in the coming days, with Carney committing to release the Liberal party platform before early voting is complete on Monday, April 21st, and Poilievre likely following a similar timeline.

This week’s Polling

As seen in the past few weeks, polling numbers for the Liberals continue to maintain a mid-sized lead over the Conservatives, with the most recent aggregate polling projections showing the Liberals having 43 points and the Conservatives close behind with 38 points. Trailing well behind both parties are the NDP and Bloc Québécois, with nine points and six points, respectively. This results in a one-point decrease for the Liberals, as well as a one-point increase for both the Conservatives and the NDP.

While these numbers show consistency from last week, the seat projection, should an election be held today, shows the Liberals holding 191 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives getting 123 seats, the Bloc with 20, and the NDP with eight. Despite this continuing trend of the previous week of the Liberals achieving the 172 seats needed to form a majority government, this week does show the Liberals losing five seats and the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois each gaining two and three seats, respectively, from prior polls. It is yet to be determined if this slight drop in support for the Liberal Party will continue into the final week as a more pronounced trend, or if the numbers will again stabilize. Pollsters will be working to carefully measure and analyze any additional movement following this week’s debates.

Political Parties

Liberal Party of Canada

This week, Liberal Leader Mark Carney spent his time in Quebec ahead of the French and English Leaders' debates, where he made several announcements addressing crime and public safety concerns. Measures included restricting guns and strengthening law enforcement, implementing an efficient buy-back program for assault-style firearms, revoking gun licenses for individuals convicted of violent offences, recruiting more RCMP and CBSA officers to tackle drug and human trafficking, and investing more in first responders, including increasing funding for mental health supports.

Carney also committed to securing Canadian sovereignty through reinvestment in the military industry and diversifying trade through measures that would boost Canada's domestic defence industry and production domestically and abroad. This announcement included the promise to overhaul defence procurement and advance Canada’s participation in the ReArm Europe Plan in support of transatlantic security.

Additionally, Carney announced measures to support the reskilling of Canadian workers to help them access and afford new skills training in the middle of their careers, particularly for priority sectors such as manufacturing, health care, construction, AI, and technology.

Carney also announced measures to create a “Canada Strong Pass” to allow families to explore Canadian museums and galleries for free, while also providing free and discounted travel on VIA Rail for under-18-year-olds and Canadian youths, respectively.

Following these announcements, Carney participated in both the French and English debates, where he focused on the issue of President Trump’s tariffs. However, he was consistently targeted by all party leaders, where he was particularly faced with questions regarding his record at Brookfield, his support of pipelines to advance Canada’s energy future, and how he plans to support Canadians, including specifically Quebecers.

Conservative Party of Canada

As with the previous weeks, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre focused his announcements this week on domestic issues, campaigning in various locations in Quebec ahead of the French and English debates. These policies focused on assisting specific groups, such as skilled trades workers, seniors, and veterans, as well as addressing issues, such as housing and government accountability.

As part of his policy announcements, Poilievre committed to requiring banks and other companies to take action to assist Canadians, such as having banks allow for skilled trades and apprenticeships to be eligible for RESPs and having banks and telecommunication companies take action to protect seniors from fraud and scams by improving detection.

Poilievre also introduced measures to assist veterans by cutting red tape on their medical and disability care, such as allowing veterans to have full control over their medical records, ensuring a national standard of support in allowing PTSD service dogs for veterans, and allowing military doctors to assess injuries using a standardized system.

Poilievre additionally announced several measures to make it easier to build houses in municipalities, as well as committing to introduce legislation to increase transparency rules for elected officials and committed to ensuring that Canadians have access to medically-assisted dying by keeping the current regime intact without expanding it.

As with previous announcements, Poilievre made a commitment to address crime, promising to utilize the notwithstanding clause to impose consecutive life sentences for multiple murder charges.

During this week’s French and English Debates, Poilievre attempted to appear Prime Ministerial while also engaging with other party leaders to get his key messages across to Canadians. He faced questions on his continued refusal to get security clearance for foreign interference briefings, his recent policy announcement to use the notwithstanding clause to ensure multi-murder convicts face life in prison, his support for the Canadian oil industry, and his plan to defund the CBC.

New Democratic Party

Campaigning in Toronto earlier this week before travelling to Montreal for the French and English Leaders' debates, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh unveiled his party’s health care plan anchored to pledges to hire 35,000 nurses by 2030 and tying federal health transfers to greater recruitment and retention. In addition to the two topline items, the NDP’s health care plan also included items on:

• Requiring provinces to meet nurse-to-patient ratios, guarantee fair wages, and improve working conditions;
• Committing to stopping “a drain” to private nursing agencies and reinvesting in strong public health care teams, with emphasis on rural, remote, and Indigenous communities;
• Incentivizing provinces to fast-track accreditation for internationally educated nurses;
• Actively recruiting qualified nurses from the U.S. and fast-tracking their credentials so they can help fill urgent gaps in Canada’s public health care system, especially in underserved communities;
• Paying student nurses during clinical training so students are not doing unpaid work; and,
• Recognizing more than 780,000 nurses and Personal Support Workers with a new $5,000 Canadian Health Care Workers Tax Credit.

During the debates this week, Singh fought hard to be heard amongst the other federal party leaders, as he continued to tout successful NDP initiatives, such as health care, pharmacare, and dental care. In his efforts to do so, Singh did not shy away from aiming questions at the other party leaders, particularly Carney and Poilievre.

Bloc Québécois

Ahead of the French and English Debates, Bloc Québécois Leader, Yves-François Blanchet, announced measures to address crime, including introducing three major crime-fighting bills.

• Amending the Criminal Code to prevent the use of the R. v. Jordan defense in serious crimes;
• Creating a registry of criminal organizations, streamlining asset seizures when there’s a risk of dissipation, and reversing the burden of proof to demonstrate assets are not crime-related, while also toughening penalties for recruiting minors; and,
• Reinstating mandatory minimum sentences for firearm-related crimes (with judicial discretion for exceptions), while banning community sentences for sexual violence offences.

Additionally, Blanchet discussed health policy, calling for an increase in the federal health transfers by 35 percent.

Blanchet’s participation in the French and English Debates was expected in his advocacy for Quebec issues among, as he claimed, party leaders more focused on other provinces, such as Ontario, with the Liberal Party Leader having announced support for auto workers amidst tariff concerns.

Green Party

Similar to other parties, the Green Party also continued to announce more domestically focused policies, focusing this week on education, where they called for universal access to post-secondary education by making college and university free, and housing, where they aimed to triple Canada’s social housing stock.

The Green Party’s housing plans aimed to revitalize the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) to refocus its mandate on financing and constructing non-market housing, as well as establish prefabricated housing plants to reduce construction costs while creating local jobs.

The Green Party did not participate in the French and English Debates in Montreal this week, as the Leaders’ Debates Commission determined that the Green Party did not meet the participation requirements, after they decided to not run candidates in all the ridings, after stating they would.