Federal Election 2025 Update/Week 2

Key Takeways:

• Trump's new tariffs have escalated trade tensions with Canada and become a central issue
• Party leaders unveil big promises on trade, housing, climate, and affordability
• The Liberals are gaining momentum in the polls, but the race remains competitive

Current Political Landscape

With the second week of the 2025 federal election now concluded, party leaders continue to announce their policies designed to convince Canadians that they are best positioned to deal with the issues Canadians are currently facing, focusing on issues such as the rising cost of living, boost the Canadian economy, and trade relations.  

Amid these typical campaign proceedings, the attention of the political landscape was focused on the United States as President Donald J. Trump was set to announce a series of “reciprocal” tariffs on all imports into the United States, to balance trade deficits, in what he deemed as “Liberation Day.” On Wednesday, President Trump imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff for goods from all countries, as well as additional tariffs on 60 countries to “balance” trade. He also imposed a 25 percent tariff on foreign vehicles imported into the United States.  

Canada was largely spared from new tariffs, with the only addition being the 25 percent on foreign vehicles that would impact the Canadian auto sector. President Trump maintained the 25 percent tariffs on non-CUSMA compliant goods and the 25 percent tariff on all Canadian steel and aluminum.  

In response to the new tariffs on vehicles, including Canadian vehicles, imported into the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney met with provincial and territorial premiers and announced a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on vehicles from the United States. Carney also stated his intent to introduce additional countermeasures as needed that would have maximum impact on the United States and minimum impact on Canada.  

In addition to the focus on President Trump and tariffs from the United States, it is clear that the campaigns are settling in. In addition to the leaders touring the country to make policy announcements and meet voters, each party has rapidly announced nominees in a variety of ridings across the country, resulting in the Liberals surpassing the Conservatives in number of candidates.  

Despite this, however, these nominations have not been without their challenges, with both the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party having to quickly drop certain candidates and quickly nominate new candidates in their place.  

This Week's Polling

Polling numbers for the Liberals continue to trend upwards, with the most recent aggregate polling projections showing Liberals in the lead with 43 points, with the Conservatives close behind with 38 points. This represents a two-point increase for the LPC and a one-point increase for the CPC since last week’s projections. Trailing behind both parties are the NDP and Bloc Quebecois, with ten points and six points, respectively.  

These numbers currently break down to Liberals with 193 seats in the House of Commons, Conservatives holding 125 seats, the Bloc with 17, and the NDP with 7, if an election were to be held today. This continues the upward trend of the previous week for the Liberal Party, with them being able to achieve the 172 seats needed to form a majority government and is showing a gradual drop in seats projected for the other parties.

While the polling numbers continue to indicate the Liberals could achieve a majority government, with polling projections from the past few weeks seeing the possible amount projected continuing to grow, the 2025 federal election campaign is far from over, and there is sure to be continued movement in the polls as policies become clearer and more defined and platforms are released.

Political Parties

Liberal Party of Canada

Liberal Party Leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney, spent the first half of the week in Ontario, before travelling to Manitoba.
During his second week on the campaign trail, Carney made several policy announcements, particularly focused on large issues that have been top of mind for Canadians during this election. This includes a significant housing announcement, stating that his government would establish a new federal housing entity that would oversee the plan to double Canada’s rate of residential housing construction over the next decade to nearly 500,000 new homes per year.  
With trade and trade relations continuing to be a focus in this election, Carney also made a commitment to invest in a $5 billion Trade Diversification Corridor Fund that would build infrastructure to diversify Canada’s trading partners and strengthen the security of Canada’s ports. He also stated that he would strengthen Canada’s agri-food sector and maintain production quotas, cut regulations, allocate $200 million for domestic food processing, and permanently double the AgriStability payment cap to $6 million.

Conservative Party of Canada

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre spent the week campaigning in several provinces, such as New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Ontario.
Continuing his focus on affordability, Poilievre committed several policy announcements aimed at assisting Canadians, including deferring the tax on capital gains, which would allow Canadians to reinvest their earnings in Canada, removing the automatic annual tax increases on alcohol, and expanding the tax write off trade workers can declare for work travel to include food, transportation and accommodation for travel over 120km.

Poilievre also announced policies aimed at supporting large energy infrastructure projects in Canada, including creating a pre-approved national energy corridor to speed up infrastructure projects, and enacting a set of demands from the energy sector, which includes streamlining the regulation of projects, imposing six-month deadlines for project approvals, ending to both the emissions cap and the industrial carbon price and the providing Indigenous loan guarantees “at scale.”

Poilievre also made an announcement regarding public safety, committing to impose mandatory life sentences on people found guilty of trafficking fentanyl on a large scale, people convicted of more than 5 counts of human trafficking, or exporting 10 or more illegal firearms.
In relation to tariffs from the United States, Poilievre stated that a Conservative government would propose an early renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement ahead of its planned revision in 2026, where Canada would seek a pause on all tariffs during negotiations. He also stated that he would impose retaliatory tariffs, create a temporary loan program for businesses affected by tariffs, and remove the GST on Canadian-made vehicles.

New Democratic Party

This week, Jagmeet Singh, Leader of the New Democratic Party, held events across the county, making appearances in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario.

The NDP made a number of policy announcements during the second week of the campaign focused on the environment and healthcare and outlined further responses to the ongoing US tariff dispute.
In relation to the environment, Singh re-affirmed a previous commitment to eliminate the consumer carbon price while retaining the industrial price, pledged to eliminate federal oil and gas subsidies stating it would provide a cost savings of $18 billion over 10 years, and announced plans to retrofit 3.3 million homes with energy-saving upgrades—including free retrofits for 2.3 million low-income households, and grants or low-interest loans for 1 million more—stating that it would cut energy bills by potentially up to $4,500 a year for families across Canada.

On the issue of healthcare, the NDP proposed a ban on American companies buying Canadian Hospitals and Health Care Facilities and announced a multi-pronged commitment to updating the Canada Health Act including amendments to ban private pay-for-care clinics, being steadfast in ruling out any negotiation on the Canadian health care system in future deals and making federal health funding conditional on meeting a criterion of public health care standards. Singh also vowed to go after Provinces they believe to be in violation of the Canada Health Act, specifically citing Danielle Smith and Alberta as he was speaking from Edmonton.  

As tariffs have continued to be a focus in the Canadian political landscape, particularly before and immediately following President Trump’s

“Liberation Day,” Singh promised to protect Canadian steel by committing to the following:

• A new pledge to use 100% Canadian steel in all federally funded projects going forward.
• Banning U.S. companies from federal procurement contracts if they are targeting Canadian goods with tariffs.
• Prioritizing Canadian unionized firms in public project bidding.
• Increasing Canadian content requirements for all federally funded projects.

Singh also proposed a plan to bring back a measure used by Canada during the First and Second World Wars in the form of what he calls “Canada Victory Bonds,” which are 5 or 10-year bonds that would pay a compounding interest rate of 3.5%—set 0.25% above the average 5-year bank GIC and be tax-free if held to maturity. Singh stated that the Bonds would be available via payroll deduction or over the counter, making it easy for Canadians to participate, and that the point would be for every dollar raised it would be dedicated entirely to public infrastructure—not general revenue— to support shovel-ready projects like roads, bridges, transit, ports, housing, and water systems.  

Bloc Québécois

This week, the Bloc Québécois released their party platform, making them the first party to do so during the 2025 federal election.
The platform, titled "Choisir le Québec" ("Choose Quebec"), presents a vision focused on Quebec’s sovereignty, economic resilience, cultural identity, and environmental leadership. The platform is organized into four key themes, each addressing critical priorities for Quebec’s future:

• Standing Strong (Choisir de se tenir debout), which focusses on defending Quebec’s economic interests, particularly against external threats such as U.S. trade policies.
• Being Ourselves (Choisir d’être nous-mêmes), which highlights Quebec’s cultural and social priorities, starting with the protection and promotion of the French language.
• Healthy Environment (Choisir un environnement sain), which proposes a "climate test" for federal policies to ensure alignment with Quebec’s environmental goals,
• Choosing Quebec (Choisir le Québec), which reinforces Quebec’s autonomy and aspirations for greater self-determination.

Green Party

The co-leader of the Green Party, Jonathan Pedneault, spent his time campaigning in British Columbia, Quebec, and Yukon this week, where he made several announcements related to protecting Canada’s interest regarding the environment, climate readiness, trade, and Canadian culture.
Pedneault criticized the Liberals and the Conservatives for their announcements to streamline the assessment process, instead calling for a stronger federal law to assess fossil fuel development that would ensure biodiversity is protected.

As climate change is a key issue, the Green Party also announced a National Civil Defence Corps plan, which focuses on being prepared for climate disasters, as well as cyber threats and geopolitical instability, by requiring universal civil defence training to ensure Canadians have access to basic emergency preparedness skills.

The Green Party also focussed on trade, like all the other political parties, proposing that the Canadian government should purchase Canadian resources, such as forest products, aluminum, and potash, at the price set for current exports and divert them to Strategic Reserves held by Canadian Crown Corporations.

Pedneault also emphasized protecting Canada’s interests, particularly focusing on the need to protect Canadian arts, culture, and media. This includes continuing to fund the CBC, restoring the Canada Council for the Arts budget of $500 million to assist the arts and artists, and addressing regional disparities in arts funding by directing restored funds toward communities that have historically received less support.

What's Next

By the strong reactions from capitals around the world and financial markets, the devastating impact of Trump’s tariffs announced this week cannot be overstated.
It is a pivot point for the global trading system.

The reality is that will mean a seismic shift for the Canadian economy, and what will the impacts be for this federal election campaign.
Poilievre has in recent days increasingly shifted commentary on Trump’s trade impacts. Will he continue to stay on that message, or will he hew back to the domestic affordability concerns and attacks on Mark Carney that animate the massive crowds showing up to his rallies?

For Carney – is it now time to broaden the message? While the impacts of Trump’s tariffs will play out over the days, weeks, and months ahead, and the issue will certainly stay in the new cycle, the big day – Liberation Day – has now come and gone. Will week three see a pivot to domestic issues like affordability, housing, and the economy or will Trump and his tariffs continue to dominate?