Ontario Election 2025 Update/ Week 1

Potential US-Canada Trade War Continues

Key Highlights

• All three political party leaders outlined response to President Trump’s tariff threats
• Bonnie Crombie leans into the health care message
• Doug Ford and the PCs continue to maintain a strong lead in the polls with multiple unions endorsing the PC Party for the first time

The Latest from the Campaign Trail

It was a busy first week for all political parties on the 2025 Ontario election campaign trail.

‍Ontario PC Party

• Doug Ford asked the people for a strong mandate to protect Ontario, its workers, businesses and communities from the unprecedented economic uncertainty caused by the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. (Read more)  

• Doug Ford stopped in London and reaffirmed the party’s commitment to doing whatever is necessary to protect Ontario autoworkers, their jobs, and their paycheques. He promises to increase investments and to advocate for the federal government to follow suit. (See more)

• While in Ottawa, PC Candidate Prabmeet Sarkaria promised to build on a new deal with the City to protect local workers and build infrastructure. This plan includes uploading Highway 174 to the province and investing in its improvements to create jobs and support Ottawa’s growth. (See more)

• Doug Ford made a campaign stop in Niagara Falls where, he announced an additional $22 billion in the PC’s nearly $200 billion economic plan, promising to widen the QEW in Niagara and support various funding streams in Ontario. (See more)  

• Ford met with SEIU Healthcare Canada, announcing a $1.8 billion investment to connect every person in the province with a family doctor and primary care team. (See more)  

• Ontario PC candidates Peter Bethlenfalvy and Caroline Mulroney, Finance Minister and President of the Treasury Board in the Ford Government, outlined the specific details of the Ontario PC plan to protect Ontario should their government be re-elected, which includes (See more):  
  • $10 billion in cash-flow support for Ontario employers through a six-month deferral of provincially administered taxes on Ontario businesses.  
  • $3 billion in payroll tax and premium relief for small businesses.  
  • $120 million to support approximately 18,000 bars and restaurants by increasing the LCBO wholesale discount from 10 per cent to 15 per cent.  
  • $40 million for a new Trade-Impacted Communities Program to support municipalities and communities that face major economic disruption stemming from new tariffs.  
  • $300 million to expand the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit.  
  • $600 million for the Invest Ontario Fund so Ontario can continue attracting investments that create jobs in key sectors, including advanced manufacturing, life sciences and technology.  
  • Leveraging Ontario’s nearly $30 billion in annual provincial procurement, in addition to the $200 billion in Ontario’s plan to build the economy.   
  • Urging the federal government to fairly and quickly distribute retaliatory tariff revenue to impacted workers and businesses. 
• As the U.S. pauses tariffs on Canada for 30 days, Doug Ford announced that Ontario will also pause its retaliatory measures. He emphasized the importance of U.S.-Canada unity and urged both countries to focus on the real trade threat, China. (See more)
• Ford was in Ottawa this week and announced that if re-elected, he would upload the Ottawa LRT network to the province and integrate its operations under Metrolinx to reduce costs and improve service. (See more)

• In the first week the PCs have received a number of unions endorsements including from Ontario Professional Firefighters Association, LiUNA, Unifor Local 29-X, Unifor Local 1285, IBEW Construction Council of Ontario, Ontario Sheet Metal Workers’ and Roofers’ Conference (OSMWRC)

• While in Pickering, Doug Ford promised to reduce costs for Ontario drivers by cutting tolls and taxes. His pledge includes removing the toll from Highway 407 East – the last tolled stretch of publicly owned highway in the province, permanently cutting the provincial tax on gas by 5.7 cents per litre, and banning the use of congestion pricing. (See more)  

Ontario Liberal Party

• Bonnie Crombie spent the first week discussing the healthcare crisis. Crombie promises that if elected Premier, every person in Ontario will have a family doctor in four years. (See More)

• Bonnie Crombie held a campaign event in Mississauga, announcing her return to the race for a seat in Mississauga East-Cooksville. (See more)

• Crombie called out Doug Ford for wasting almost $200 million and a month of time on a “power grab”, claiming he is only interested in protecting his job, not Ontario. (See more)
• Bonnie Crombie launched a plan to improve transit safety, including the hiring of additional constables, investing in mobile crisis intervention teams and safety equipment, and installing platform doors in all TTC subway stations. (See more)  
• Bonnie Crombie unveiled her plan to safeguard Ontario, including  
  • Establishing the Fight Tariffs Fund to protect businesses  
  • Excluding American companies from Ontario procurement opportunities
  • Eliminating interprovincial trade barriers. (See more)
• Bonnie Crombie vowed to make life more affordable for Ontarians living with disabilities by permanently doubling Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) benefits. Currently, half a million people rely on a maximum of $1,368 per month, which has remained stagnant under the PCs. (See more)  

Ontario NDP

• Marit Stiles launched the NDP campaign, centred around building homes, hiring doctors, fixing schools, and to make life more affordable for Ontarians. (See more)

• Stiles was in Windsor, where she vowed to protect the auto sector and other jobs at risk in Ontario due to Donald Trump's tariff threats. (See more)  

• She also committed to strengthening Ontario’s economy by building a more “tariff-proof Ontario”. Her strategy involves defending trade-exposed industries i.e. the auto industry, supporting Canada’s tariff response, and launching a Premier’s Task Force on the Economy, bringing together business, labour, and civil society. (See more)

• Stiles announced her plan to invest in schools and set kids up for success. Her plan includes increased funding, hiring more staff, implementing a universal school food program, and fostering a more equitable learning environment. (See more)

• While in Parkdale, Marit Stiles announced her plan to end encampments and address chronic homelessness in Ontario. The plan includes creating 60,000 new supportive housing units, uploading shelter funding to the province, increasing housing benefits, and strengthening protections for renters. (See more)

To learn more about how trade tensions are shaping the campaign, read our full analysis here.