The Liberal Comeback – How the Party Reclaimed Power in a Defining Election

As much as any signature policy achievement or Prime Minister it has produced, one thing the Liberal Party of Canada has been renowned for throughout it’s now over a century and a half long history is an ability to continuously survive, adapt and channel the national mood of the moment, and at times pull victory from the jaws of certain defeat. After suffering near wipe-outs of its entire caucus after elections in 1957, 1984 and 2011 at the hands of John Diefenbaker, Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper respectively – the Party, after a near decade in power, seemed to stand at a similar precipice once again at the end of 2024.

Down 25 points in all national polls to the Official Opposition Conservative Party for the better part of two years, having lost a series of by-elections in long-held party strongholds, and with then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at record lows of unpopularity from the Canadian public, the Liberal caucus was experiencing widespread unrest. However, the resignation of Hon. Chrystia Freeland as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister on December 16th (the day she was originally set to deliver the Government’s Fall Economic Statement no less) set in range a series of events previously unseen in Canadian history.

By now well documented, this chain of events included Prime Minister Trudeau’s announced resignation on January 6th , a prorogation of Parliament until late March, and a returned U.S. President Donald Trump extolling the virtues of the US absorbing Canada as a “treasured 51st state”. The sudden threat of annexation, and later the imposition of tariffs,  produced a quandary for many of Trudeau’s long-standing and trusted Ministers. No one wished to seem overly ambitious and political in running for the Party Leadership to succeed him at a moment that called for all hands on deck in dealing with the new American administration. So many long-rumored contenders for the Leadership, including then-Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Industry Minister Francois-Phillippe Champagne and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, opted to remain in their jobs rather than enter the contest.

Long heralded as a presumptive candidate for both the Liberals, and allegedly at times in the past the Conservatives, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stepped into the picture. Carney who’d been rumored to be interested in federal politics as far back as 2013 had publicly declared his support for the Liberals at their 2021 virtual convention, but had not yet contested for a seat in Parliament. His victory in the March leadership contest with an astounding 85% on the first ballot made him the first Prime Minister in Canadian history to assume the country’s highest office without any prior elected experience. That said, a tall task remained ahead in convincing Canadians that his focus on the economy and protecting the country from the aggressive overtures of the Americans was enough to warrant a fourth consecutive mandate for the Liberal Party.

The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre had done a masterful job on framing the issues top of mind to Canadians in the years preceding the election, tying the Liberals to out of control housing costs and a lack of new housing construction. Liberal policies such as carbon pricing were having inflationary effects on food and fuel, and the carbon tax had become so toxically unpopular that one of Carney’s key pledges during the leadership became to scrap the consumer price on carbon immediately upon assuming the mantel of Prime Minister. But the sudden surge in patriotism following Trump’s threats of annexation and the imposition of tariffs on energy, steel and aluminum reshaped the dynamics of the federal landscape significantly. An election initially slated to be about anger and affordability was changed one focused by fear and who would best fight for the country against a suddenly hostile United States.

The election produced the closest result between two major parties seen in a century, with the Liberals securing 43% of the national vote to the Conservatives’ 41%. Both secured over 8 million votes, shattering previous totals. The Liberals managed to form a strong minority government, winning 170 seats – just shy of the 172 needed for a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons. Liberals picked up seats lost over the previous two elections in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and British Columbia (winning more in BC than they had in 2015), but lost key ridings in the Greater Toronto Area. The Conservatives managed to win 23 additional seats, increasing their total to 143, but suffering a setback with Leader Pierre Poilievre losing his own Ottawa-area riding of Carleton.

Carney’s leadership brought a strategic shift in the party’s approach. Voters were open to the Liberals once again with Justin Trudeau removed from the equation and a revised approach focused on economic resilience and national unity. This was enough to retain core segments of Liberal support with voters over 65+. However, losses in Ontario prevented them from regaining the majority status they lost in 2019.

Opposition Challenges

Poilievre’s campaign faced criticisms for not pivoting from prosecuting the Liberal record to one focused on Canada-US tension. To be fair, it was clear that positions on affordability and crime resonated with large swaths of the Canadian public. But the lack of pivot to stronger rhetoric on the Canada-US relationship was perceived by many political pundits as a missed opportunity given the substantive lead they held in the polls months before.

The Conservative Leader intends to hang on and has thus far received the support of his caucus. He will be running in the  CPC-safe riding of Battle River-Crowfoot in Alberta and is likely to return to the House of Commons in time for the fall sitting.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) suffered its worst defeat in party history, gaining only 6 percent of the vote, down to 7 seats from 25, and with leader Jagmeet Singh losing his seat and subsequently resigning.

The Bloc Québécois experienced a decline, further consolidating the Liberals’ position in Quebec, but at 21 seats remain a viable force within a minority Parliament.

What Comes Next

Despite having achieved a historic victory and a new mandate, looking ahead the road doesn’t get any less precarious for Prime Minister Carney and the outlined vision centered on economic resilience and national unity.

Carney’s government faces the challenge of him having never been an MP and will be navigating for the first time the rigour of Question Period. His legislative agenda will require collaboration with other parties to survive confidence motions and make it through the House and Senate. He formed a Cabinet on May 13th that tried to strike the balance by elevating new faces just elected with some long-standing ministers to be steady hands. A rocky first couple of days show that Carney may yet have his hands full navigating the internal dynamics of his own party as many of his predecessors did.

However, with the NDP having lost its leader and the Bloc reduced in stature, combined with Poilievre likely not returning to Parliament until the fall session, time is on Carney’s side. Making history may have been how the newly minted Prime Minister  started his political career, but the real work begins now on how it will remember him.