Premiers and PM Meet to Coordinate Response to Trump Tariffs
Yesterday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with the provincial and territorial premiers of Canada to discuss Canada-U.S. relations and the pending threat of Trump tariffs.
After weeks of widely varying approaches, with Ontario calling for tough retaliation and cutting off energy exports, and Alberta and Saskatchewan rejecting the idea, the hope was to have a coordinated, united front. However, the so-called ‘’Team Canada’’ does not seem to be in agreement. It appears that the consensus was to take nothing off the table for retaliatory measures, with the exception of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith refusing to sign the final meeting communiqué, citing concerns about the possibility of an export tax on oil and gas as part of the measures proposed by Ottawa.
President-elect Donald Trump’s 25% tariff threats are serious, and Canada will respond in kind. Canada’s response will be measured, with the Prime Minister indicating that Canada will take a step-by-step approach and not necessarily match the US dollar for dollar at the outset. Officials at Finance Canada are finalizing the retaliatory list of U.S. goods, valued at $150 billion. For the time being, the list has been kept highly confidential. With that in mind, the list of the Canadian countermeasure list of goods from 2018 in retaliation to Trump’s imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum can provide a good sense of what Canada might target in response to this commercial threat.
During today’s meeting, Premiers were also briefed on the three main issues the Trump Administration said had to be addressed in order to avoid tariffs: the joint fight against illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, the joint management of border security and the integrity of the immigration system. This includes the deployment of new helicopters, drones, and the building of watch towers along the Canada-U.S. border.
Premiers Divided
Premier Doug Ford has been leading the charge against the tariff threats since Donald Trump’s November 2024 re-election. With multiple appearances in U.S. media such as CNN and Fox News, he has called for an aggressive “sledgehammer” response. He has expressed concern over Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, suggesting that such tariffs could necessitate billions in economic stimulus. Ford has emphasized the importance of maintaining strong trade ties between Ontario and the U.S., urging Trump to "bet big" on Ontario-U.S. trade. He has highlighted the integrated supply chains and economic partnership between the two regions. While Ford has stated that an embargo on energy and critical mineral exports to the U.S. is a last resort, he has not ruled it out should the tariff dispute escalate. Ford's comments reflect his focus on protecting Ontario's economy and jobs in the face of potential challenges posed by Trump's policies. Premier Ford is also poised to leverage his public leadership on trade into a possible early election call in the coming weeks.
Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey said that Canada should make sure the U.S. is aware of its reliance on Canadian energy but not pull back on those exports just yet.
Quebec Premier Francois Legault said Canada should have many options prepared if Trump follows through on the threat of tariffs.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith rejected the idea of any measures that would affect Canada’s oil and gas exports to the United States.
In light of Prime Minister Trudeau's recent resignation announcement and the political uncertainties it brings, the Premiers are seeking a unified approach to navigate this challenging period and present a strong case for Canada's economic interests. They also aim to ensure that any retaliatory measures are carefully considered and effectively implemented.
All eyes on Washington DC on January 20
President-elect Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, and we will be watching closely as his administration takes shape.
