MENU
01
Home
02
Services
03
Sectors
04
Team
05
Our Work
06
Updates
07
Careers
08
Contact
Services
01
Government Relations
02
Communications & Digital
03
Advisory Services
Sectors
01
Energy
02
Environment
03
Health Care
Updates
01
Insights
02
News
EN
FR
HomeServicesSectorsTeamOur WorkUpdates
EN
FR
insights
updates
May 20, 2022

#ONelxn2022 Series: The Debate and The Damage Done

written by
Ontario Team
#ONelxn2022 Series: The Debate and The Damage Done

Authored by: Brian Zeiler-Kligman, Vice President and Naomi Shuman, Associate

In every election campaign, the leaders’ debate is a focal point, viewed as a potential make-or-break event. Political junkies can recall, with reverence, prior dramatic debate moments like Brian Mulroney in 1984 telling John Turner “You had an option, sir” or Stockwell Day’s hand-written “No 2-Tier Health Care” sign in 2000. Based on moments like these, there is a widely-held belief that leaders’ debates can deliver knock-out blows, cementing – for good or ill – the public’s perception of a leader and their party.

Undoubtedly, there have been Ontario leaders’ debates that have changed the course of elections. In today’s environment though, the game-changing potential of the leader’s debate may be more limited.

The Leaders’ Debate and Analysis

On the evening of Monday, May 16, the second and final Ontario Election leaders’ debate took place, involving PC Leader Doug Ford, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner. The good (if cheeky) news: [insert name of preferred party leader here] won the debate. And, in most instances, an argument can be made to justify the previous sentence.

Monday’s leaders’ debate followed the Northern leaders’ debate held in North Bay on May 9. Normally, this debate focuses on issues of importance to Northern Ontario; this time, the leaders debated broader election issues, like COVID-19 management, affordability, transportation infrastructure and housing, resulting in some fiery exchanges. For those keeping track, there was also a French-language debate on Tuesday, May 17. But since none of the party leaders are sufficiently strong in French, the debate took place between party francophone spokespersons.

There were no knock-out blows delivered at Monday night’s debate. The Liberals and NDP both went into the debate hoping to make electoral gains and to use the debate as a turning point in the campaign. The PCs, on the other hand, went into the debate hoping not to offend any of their supporters or change the trajectory of the campaign. And the Green Party was largely happy to finally be a part of the Leaders’ Debate.

With affordability issues dominating voter concerns, all candidates spent time emphasizing how they would make life more affordable for Ontarians: Liberal leader Steven Del Duca publicized the “Ontario Affordability Pledge” he had signed that morning at a campaign event; NDP leader Andrea Horwath focused on her commitment to raise the minimum wage and make gas prices more affordable; PC leader Doug Ford highlighted his gas tax break and scrapping the licence-plate fee.

The exchanges between the leaders did provide some soundbites. For example, there was Mike Schreiner asking Doug Ford “have you talked to a nurse lately?;” Steven Del Duca telling Andrea Horwath that Doug Ford smiles every time she attacks him; Andrea Horwath lamenting the “cuts and chaos” the PCs brought to the education system; and Doug Ford explaining he can work with Mike Schreiner because, implicitly unlike the other leaders, he "is honest and upfront.”

By many accounts, Mike Schreiner was the most effective leader during the debate. He stayed on point with direct responses that contained just enough detail to remain digestible and was authentic. That said, each of the other leaders can find positives from their performances.

The Debate’s Impact

Perhaps acknowledging how 'ordinary‘ Ontarians feel about the debate, in her opening statement Andrea Horwath tried to joke the debate might not be “the most fun thing you’ll do on a Monday night.” While it is possible to make gains during debates, committing a faux pas is the main fear for many party leaders and the reason behind the considerable time spent by candidates and campaign teams prepping for the events.

While many strategists will tell you that  debates matter, the reality is that most voters are only going to watch the memorable sound bites that are captured on Twitter or replayed by TV media. Others will just read the media reports on the event, which include both analysis pieces and articles summarizing the top moments.

And these are the interested voters. Likely a plurality of voters will not take note of the debate at all.

What it all Means

It is still early, but some polls are now coming out that surveyed voters after Monday’s debate. By and large, the debate did not move the needle much for any of the parties. That said, the Green Party does seem to be enjoying a bump after the debate. And, while seemingly not much reflected in polling numbers, the debate appears to have spiked voter interest in Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, with Google Trends data showing searches of his name spiked partway through Monday’s debate.

With the Ontario election now less than two weeks away, we expect ad spending and activity by the parties will pick up. The party leaders will start to focus their energy and resources on particular seats they think they have a chance of winning or feel they are at risk of losing.

The campaign is far from over. As is often stated, the only poll that really matters is the one on election day. And all indications are that Monday’s  leaders’ debate will ultimately make little difference to that one.

No items found.
share article
Link copied
‍

RECENT POSTS

Ontario’s Integrated Energy Plan
June 12, 2025

Ontario’s Integrated Energy Plan

June 12, 2025: The Government of Ontario released Energy for Generations | Ontario’s Integrated Plan (IEP) to Power the Strongest Economy in the G7, formally signaling the need for immediate action and long-term planning. The plan aims to present a holistic policy strategy that will guide Ontario’s energy planners and regulators based on four core principles: affordability, security, reliability, and clean energy.

Bill 40: Protect Ontario by Securing Affordable Energy for Generations Act, 2025 Introduced in Legislature
June 4, 2025

Bill 40: Protect Ontario by Securing Affordable Energy for Generations Act, 2025 Introduced in Legislature

Yesterday, the Government of Ontario introduced the Protect Ontario by Securing Affordable Energy for Generations Act, 2025. This legislation is reflective of several themes and priorities raised during the recent Ontario Election for the province’s energy sector, including affordability, energy security, economic growth, and domestic control.

Bringing Strategic Leadership and Energy Expertise to Atlantic Canada
May 29, 2025

Bringing Strategic Leadership and Energy Expertise to Atlantic Canada

Sussex Strategy Group, one of Canada's leading government affairs firms, is excited to announce the appointment of Andrew Parsons as Senior Counsel. A former senior cabinet minister in the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Andrew brings deep expertise in energy, public policy, and legislative strategy to Sussex, further advancing the firm's growing presence and capabilities across Canada.

view all
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
company
HomeTeamCareersContactTerms & PoliciesAccessibility
explore
ServicesSectorsOur WorkUpdates
follow us
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © 2020
Land Acknowledgement